Research reviewed 8 November 2026 · 14 October / 16 July 2026 sources
Copper outlooks can appear to disagree when they answer different questions. The October 2026 ICSG forecast concerns refined copper supply and apparent usage over 2026 and 2027. The IEA’s 2026 outlook considers the longer-term mine-project pipeline against primary supply requirements under policy scenarios.
The latest ICSG forecast places the refined balance at a surplus of about 104,000 tonnes in 2026 and 368,000 tonnes in 2027. The IEA identifies a roughly 25% gap in 2035 between its base-case announced mine supply and primary requirements in STEPS. These are projections with different definitions, not contradictory measurements of the same market.
Keep three questions separate
Which form? Mined copper, concentrate availability, refined output and finished fabricated products describe different points in the chain. Sufficient refining capacity cannot create additional concentrate. A refinery ramp-up and a mine ramp-up do not have identical schedules.
Which horizon? A one-year balance responds to utilisation, inventories and disruptions. A decade-scale project gap asks what development, recovery, recycling and demand responses may be needed. Neither establishes a certain future price.
Which basis? Apparent demand is not a direct census of every consumer. ICSG flags unreported Chinese stock movements as a source of uncertainty. The IEA’s scenario depends on announced projects, policy assumptions and secondary supply.
A more useful briefing
Put the source date, unit, material form, geography and scenario beside every number. Keep a base case and a downside case rather than inserting the headline into a procurement budget. Ask what would change the conclusion: delayed capacity, lower utilisation, new recycling flows or a different demand path.
For project discussions, use the readiness checklist to expose dependencies. For physical quantities, use the material-flow model. Neither tool predicts the market balance or recommends a purchase.